Floods, Pests, and Price Shocks: Tackling Sierra Leone’s Agricultural Vulnerabilities

In a collaborative effort involving the World Bank, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Food Security (MAFFS) of Sierra Leone, and supported by technical inputs from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), West and Central African Council for Agricultural Research (CORAF), and Statistics Sierra Leone (Stats SL), a comprehensive assessment of Sierra Leone’s agricultural sector has revealed both its indispensable economic role and the deep vulnerabilities it faces. Agriculture remains the backbone of the national economy, contributing up to 64 percent of GDP and employing a majority of the population. Since the end of the civil war in 2002, the sector has been central to government efforts to rebuild the country, bolstered by significant public investment in productivity, value chains, sustainable land use, and livestock revival. However, a series of overlapping shocks, most notably the Ebola outbreak (2014–2016) and the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2022), have derailed progress and exposed severe systemic risks. The report, titled “Sierra Leone: Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment”, brings to light the magnitude of these risks, quantifying the average annual losses at approximately US$128 million, around 3.5 percent of national GDP.

The Triple Threat: Floods, Pests, and Erratic Rainfall

The agricultural risks examined in the report fall broadly into three categories: flooding, pest and disease outbreaks, and erratic rainfall patterns. Together, these account for the lion’s share of sectoral losses, which total an estimated US$2.9 billion between 2003 and 2021. Flooding is identified as the most frequent and devastating hazard, occurring roughly every four years and inflicting severe damage on staple crops like rice and cassava. Notably, rice, which represents 34 percent of total agricultural production by value, accounted for US$1.2 billion, or 42 percent, of cumulative sector losses. The impacts are especially harsh in flood-prone lowland areas where infrastructure and drainage remain underdeveloped. Second in severity are pest and disease outbreaks, including the fall armyworm, variegated grasshoppers, rodents, and crop-specific diseases like the African cassava mosaic virus and cocoa root rot. These outbreaks are exacerbated by limited access to pesticides and ineffective distribution systems. Erratic rainfall and in-season dry spells round out the top risks, occurring roughly every five years. When these coincide with key stages of crop development, the result is widespread yield decline. Though wildfires were flagged by stakeholders as a growing concern, the absence of reliable national data makes their financial impact difficult to quantify.

Market Volatility and Livestock Fragility

Beyond environmental shocks, the report also analyzes market-related risks, including the volatile pricing of both domestic and export crops. Unstable prices for rice, cassava, groundnuts, oil palm, and cocoa undermine farmer income and discourage investment in productivity. The fragility of infrastructure, particularly storage, processing, and transportation, further exposes producers to post-harvest losses and regional market disruptions. At the macroeconomic level, fluctuations in the exchange rate, high interest rates, and unpredictable policy decisions create a difficult operating environment for both smallholder farmers and agribusinesses. The livestock sector is similarly vulnerable, particularly to disease outbreaks like Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) and Newcastle Disease, which wreak havoc on poultry and small ruminants. A lack of veterinary services, low national vaccination coverage, and underfunded animal health programs compound the challenge, making livestock production a high-risk livelihood for rural communities.

Women and Smallholders: Disproportionate Impact on the Marginalized

The report emphasizes the uneven distribution of vulnerability across different groups in Sierra Leone’s agricultural landscape. Women farmers, who make up a substantial share of the sector’s workforce, face heightened exposure due to limited land rights, lower access to credit, and exclusion from extension services and decision-making platforms. Food insecurity remains high, particularly among rural households, with periodic shortages exacerbated during lean seasons and post-disaster periods. The report classifies various stakeholders within the value chain, producers, processors, agri-dealers, exporters, and pastoralists, each with unique risk profiles that require tailored support. For example, processors are more susceptible to price and input supply shocks, while producers face higher exposure to climatic risks and pests. These nuances are critical to understanding how to build effective safety nets and risk management systems that do not leave behind the most vulnerable.

Toward a Resilient Future: Managing and Layering Risk

To address these interwoven threats, the World Bank proposes a multi-layered risk management strategy. This involves combining three types of measures: ex-ante risk mitigation (such as irrigation infrastructure, crop diversification, and sustainable land management), ex-ante risk transfer (such as crop insurance, weather-indexed instruments, and community risk pooling), and ex-post coping mechanisms (including social protection programs, food-for-work schemes, and emergency cash transfers). The report advocates for a “risk layering” approach, where tools are deployed based on the severity and frequency of risks. For instance, frequent, low-impact risks are best managed through mitigation, while rare, high-impact events require a mix of all three layers. Institutional reforms are equally vital. The report underscores the need to expand early warning systems, improve data collection and GIS capabilities, and support regulatory frameworks that attract private sector participation in risk financing and insurance markets. There is a particular push for leveraging technology to improve market intelligence, automate disaster response, and deliver targeted subsidies.

In sum, the Sierra Leone Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment paints a vivid picture of a sector that is both essential and imperiled. The risks are considerable, but so is the opportunity. With robust planning, targeted investments, and inclusive policy reforms, the country can transform agriculture into a pillar of resilience, food security, and sustainable growth.