Empowering the Vulnerable: A Socially Inclusive Climate Pathway for Tajikistan

The 2025 World Bank report, authored in partnership with Aleph Strategies and backed by the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) in Central Asia, offers a timely and multidimensional exploration of the intersection between climate change and social vulnerability in Tajikistan. Lead contributors include Annisa Sekaringtias and Saagarika Dadu-Brown, alongside World Bank specialists Sana Zia, Erik Johnson, and Christopher Finch. Their findings reveal that climate change, far from being just an environmental crisis, is also an urgent social issue that disproportionately harms those already disadvantaged: women, youth, persons with disabilities, the elderly, and marginalized rural populations. The report serves as a blueprint for integrating these groups into the very core of the nation’s climate adaptation and resilience strategies.

Climate Stress Deepens Inequality in Vulnerable Communities

Tajikistan’s geography and fragile socioeconomic landscape create the perfect storm for climate-induced hardship. Floods, landslides, glacial melt, and droughts are increasing in frequency and severity, threatening food security and disrupting lives, especially in rural and mountainous regions like Khatlon, GBAO, and the Rasht Valley. For women, the consequences are particularly harsh. Gender roles place them at the helm of both household care and agricultural labor, responsibilities that become heavier as climate impacts mount. Water scarcity forces women and girls to travel longer distances to collect water, while erratic weather reduces crop yields, increasing stress and the risk of gender-based violence (GBV). The outmigration of men for labor adds another layer of burden, leaving women to manage both homes and farms alone.

Children and youth in these areas are likewise vulnerable. Their education is frequently interrupted by natural disasters, and health services are scarce. In cities, although youth demonstrate greater awareness of climate issues, they lack formal mechanisms to voice their concerns or influence decisions. Similarly, people with disabilities, numbering around 150,000 nationally, face exclusion at every level, especially in remote regions where mobility challenges and weak infrastructure hinder their access to critical services during emergencies. Across these segments, climate change reinforces patterns of exclusion and multiplies the threats they face daily.

Migration and Mobility: Crisis or Opportunity?

The report details how slow-onset climate impacts like changing rainfall patterns and soil degradation are driving internal migration. Between 2008 and 2022, over 41,000 internal displacements were recorded. By 2050, urban centers such as Dushanbe, Kulob, and Istaravshan are projected to become migration hubs, largely due to better access to water and agricultural potential. Conversely, regions like the Ferghana Valley and parts of Khatlon may see large-scale out-migration. Yet, Tajikistan’s migration policy frameworks are insufficiently equipped to deal with these shifts. Most current resettlement programs focus narrowly on infrastructure damage and ignore those displaced by slower environmental degradation.

Women, children, and persons with disabilities are especially at risk during such moves, often excluded from decisions and denied access to services in host communities. However, the report also identifies migration as a potential tool for resilience. With the right investments, migrants can acquire new skills, contribute to household incomes through remittances, and act as bridges for transferring knowledge and adaptive practices to their communities of origin. The report calls for integrating climate migration into broader adaptation and social protection strategies to ensure it becomes a managed choice, not a desperate necessity.

Energy and Agriculture: Inclusive Pathways to a Greener Future

As Tajikistan moves toward a green economy centered on hydropower and renewables, the report warns against deepening inequality through exclusionary practices. While the country possesses vast hydro and solar potential, energy poverty is widespread, especially in rural and mountainous regions. Around one million people lack reliable power during winter. Existing energy subsidies often favor wealthier households, while the poor spend as much as 19 percent of their income on energy. Distributed energy solutions like solar mini-grids and localized micro-hydro can play a transformative role, but only if access is democratized.

Agriculture, which employs over 60 percent of the workforce, is both a source of vulnerability and opportunity. Smallholder farmers, many of them women, lack access to climate-resilient seeds, irrigation tools, and markets. The report encourages expansion of climate-smart agriculture and agro-ecotourism to create green job opportunities for rural youth and women. Investment in training, technology, and financing is essential to make these opportunities inclusive, ensuring that underrepresented groups are not left behind in the transition to a green economy.

Strengthening Governance and Civic Participation

Despite the urgency of local-level action, Tajikistan’s administrative structure remains heavily centralized. Local governments, hukumats, jamoats, and mahallas play critical roles in managing land, water, and dispute resolution but are hindered by unclear mandates, weak capacity, and limited funding. Community surveys reveal widespread public skepticism about their ability to manage climate risks. Moreover, local officials often lack the data, technical training, and authority to participate meaningfully in climate planning and execution.

Civic participation, too, remains underdeveloped. While civil society organizations (CSOs) are eager to engage, they face institutional constraints and limited access to policymaking. Women and disabled persons are particularly excluded from governance spaces, especially at the jamoat level. The report underscores the need to create structured, transparent mechanisms for engagement, including youth-led Climate Action Labs, gender-sensitive training programs, and awareness campaigns that mobilize communities to own and lead climate action at the grassroots level.

Toward an Equitable and Resilient Future

The report concludes with a clear message: climate change solutions in Tajikistan must be inclusive by design, not by afterthought. This means expanding social protection systems that integrate disaster preparedness, boosting the capacity of local governments to lead on climate action, and ensuring that the benefits of green investments are shared equitably. Targeted efforts to empower women, youth, and vulnerable groups are not just ethically necessary; they are also pragmatic steps toward building lasting resilience. Tajikistan’s climate future hinges not just on mitigating environmental risks but on dismantling the social barriers that prevent its people from thriving in the face of those risks. Only through a socially inclusive lens can Tajikistan transform the climate challenge into an opportunity.