Turning Crisis Into Opportunity: UNDP Calls for a New Era of Risk-Informed Development

The United Nations Development Programme’s Development at Risk report, released in June 2025, is an urgent and provocative assessment of global development in an age of relentless disruption. Authored by lead researchers from the UNDP Crisis Bureau and Bureau for Policy and Programme Support, with intellectual input from renowned institutions like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the OECD, and independent scholars such as Yuen Yuen Ang and Ajay Gambhir, the report explores how the convergence of demographic upheaval, technological change, geopolitical shifts, ecological degradation, and governance crises is reshaping the foundations of human progress. It warns that the development gains of recent decades, already battered by COVID-19, inflation, war, and climate instability, are not just at risk of stalling but may collapse altogether if systemic, long-term thinking is not urgently embraced.

In 2024 alone, the world saw temperatures exceed the 1.5°C limit for a full year, and nearly 46 million people were displaced by disasters, an 85 percent rise from the previous year. Meanwhile, more than 1.1 billion people remain trapped in multidimensional poverty, over two billion workers labor informally without protections, and global violent conflict continues to double in frequency. These figures are not isolated incidents but symptoms of a deeper structural crisis. The report argues that these crises stem from complex, interconnected risks, risks that, if managed wisely, could still serve as springboards for innovation and transformation rather than a descent into chaos.

Beyond GDP: Rethinking What Progress Means

A central message of the report is that the current metrics of development are outdated. GDP, though widely used, fails to reflect wellbeing, environmental sustainability, or resilience. Instead, the UNDP calls for a multidimensional understanding of development that accounts for access to health, education, income, nature, and trust in social institutions. It also proposes a new development lexicon, one that emphasizes human agency, freedom, safety, and participation over mere output.

This broader conception includes vital indicators such as social cohesion, community trust, ecological balance, and intergenerational equity. The report pushes for national accounting systems to recognize the unpaid labor of women, the informal sector, and the cost of depleting natural capital. Groundbreaking metrics like Bhutan’s Gross National Happiness and the OECD’s Better Life Index are highlighted as promising alternatives. In short, the world needs to measure what truly counts, not just what is easy to calculate.

Governance for the 21st Century: Adaptive, Inclusive, Resilient

One of the report’s strongest arguments is that governance systems must be reinvented to respond to complex risks. Traditional top-down models are ill-equipped to manage uncertainty. Instead, governance must become adaptive, collaborative, and networked, tapping into the energy of civil society, digital ecosystems, and local governments. A successful 21st-century governance framework, the report argues, is built on six pillars: agency and capability, public engagement, resilient information systems, trust and legitimacy, adaptive decision-making, and agile institutions.

Examples abound. In Zambia, the transition to a digital ID system reveals both the risks and the transformative potential of technological change. In Ghana, community-driven agroforestry systems outperformed externally managed ones, illustrating the power of grassroots innovation. Across contexts, participatory decision-making, community engagement, and digital public infrastructure are shown to enhance both resilience and legitimacy.

Reinventing International Cooperation: Coalitions of the Willing

Global challenges, from climate change to pandemics, demand collective responses. Yet, the report acknowledges that traditional multilateralism is faltering under the weight of geopolitical competition and nationalism. In its place, the UNDP proposes a more flexible, pluralistic model of cooperation, which it calls “coalitions of the willing.” These include networks of cities, civil society groups, youth movements, private companies, and philanthropic institutions that are already mobilizing to fill the gaps left by slow-moving intergovernmental systems.

The report highlights examples like the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, the Pathfinders for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies, and the Network for Greening the Financial System as models of effective, decentralized collaboration. These platforms offer innovative ways to share knowledge, finance resilience, and promote peace and inclusion. For international cooperation to survive, the report argues, it must become more outcome-focused, more localised, and more responsive to the rhythms of complex risk.

From Paralysis to Action: Seizing the Opportunity in Crisis

Why is change so slow, even as crises escalate? The report tackles this by addressing “mental models” that limit imagination. It criticizes the old development paradigm, shaped by industrial-age logic, which treats society as a machine that can be adjusted through linear fixes. But societies, the report insists, are not toasters; they are forests. They are complex systems that require adaptation, experimentation, and collective learning.

The concept of “hysteresis” looms large: once a system tips into dysfunction, it may stay there unless deliberate effort is made to restore trust and function. But the report does not succumb to fatalism. Instead, it offers a clear call to action. Through investments in risk literacy, financial buffers, digital infrastructure, and inclusive planning, countries can begin to pivot. UNDP itself is backing this transition by deploying tools like the Crisis Risk Dashboard, the Africa Transition Index, and a global risk advisory service for governments.

Ultimately, the report is both a diagnosis and a roadmap. It shows that while the stakes are enormous, the world is not without agency. The real danger is not the scale of risk itself, but the refusal to act. If embraced, risk can be transformed from a force of paralysis into a catalyst for renewal, equity, and resilience. The world still has choices, but time is running out to make them.