From Relief to Resilience: Turkey’s Labor Market Program for Refugees Under the Lens

In an ambitious effort to generate robust evidence for refugee labor market integration, the World Bank, together with the Turkish Red Crescent (TRC), the Turkish Employment Agency (İŞKUR), and the Directorate General of International Labor Force (DGILF), has launched a comprehensive evaluation of a program supporting Syrian refugees and disadvantaged Turkish nationals in Turkey. This initiative, under the EU-funded ISDEP 2 (Support for Transition to the Labor Market), is supervised by the World Bank and financed through the European Union Facility for Refugees in Turkey. The baseline report, authored by Efşan Nas Özen and Dhushyanth Raju, is part of the World Bank’s Social Protection Discussion Paper series and marks a rare application of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to refugee-focused labor policy in a developing country setting.

Turkey, which continues to host the world’s largest refugee population, has seen a policy shift over the past decade, from humanitarian relief toward economic inclusion. As of late 2024, over 3 million Syrian refugees resided in the country. Against this backdrop, ISDEP 2 offers a structured, multi-tiered response aimed at fostering economic self-reliance. The program provides Turkish language instruction, job readiness training, subsidized on-the-job training (ATP) in formal enterprises, and expedited work permits for selected refugee participants. This layered approach seeks not only to improve employability but also to systematically test what works, for whom, and under what conditions.

A Diverse and Vulnerable Evaluation Sample

The baseline survey includes 2,834 individuals drawn from nine community centers in eight provinces: Adana, Bursa, Gaziantep, Istanbul (both Anadolu and Avrupa sides), İzmir, Kocaeli, Konya, and Şanlıurfa. Of these, a striking 79 percent are Syrian refugees under Temporary Protection (SUTP), while 46 percent are women and 39 percent are classified as youth (ages 18–29). The sample was evenly randomized into treatment and control groups, ensuring statistical comparability for future impact measurement. The design incorporated blocked randomization by community center and biweekly intake batches to manage flow and ensure operational feasibility.

Despite its size and diversity, the sample presents a consistent narrative: limited access to formal employment. Just 16 percent of participants reported any form of employment, and only 13 percent were in wage-paying jobs. Informal work is the norm, with most participants working full-time in facility-based roles paid in cash. Manufacturing dominates the employment sectors, followed by services and construction. Only about a third of wage workers earn above the statutory minimum wage, and formal employment is a rarity, especially for refugees and women.

Stark Gender Gaps and Youth Challenges

The gender divide is particularly stark. Employment among men stands at 24.4 percent compared to just 6.7 percent for women. Women report shorter job tenures, lower earnings (₺15,532 vs. ₺20,696 for men), and reduced working hours, yet they are more likely to work from home and report higher job satisfaction. Interestingly, women also have higher levels of formal employment (24.2 percent) compared to men (13.9 percent), suggesting a selective and possibly more stable segment of labor market engagement.

Youth, while more optimistic in their job preferences, leaning toward professional roles and showing higher satisfaction levels, also face substantial barriers. They report shorter job search durations but lower overall employment rates than older participants. Both women and youth are underrepresented in high-demand sectors such as construction and machinery operation, revealing structural constraints in opportunity distribution.

No Early Biases, but Critical Associations

The report’s baseline regression models show no statistically significant difference in employment outcomes between the treatment-eligible and control groups, a desired result that confirms the strength of the randomization. However, the analysis reveals critical patterns: being female, younger, or a recipient of the Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) cash assistance program correlates negatively with employment likelihood. In contrast, being a household head and having spent more years in Turkey were strong positive predictors. Employment outcomes also varied slightly across provinces, with Gaziantep showing a marginally positive treatment effect and İstanbul–Avrupa a slight negative one, possibly reflecting local labor market dynamics.

Additionally, the vast majority of job seekers, nearly the entire sample, expressed a willingness to work. Over half had actively searched for jobs in the past month, and their preferences largely mirrored actual employment sectors. Yet significant gender-based differences in job aspirations were observed: while men leaned toward manufacturing and construction, women favored education, healthcare, and clerical roles.

Promising Foundations for a Rare Global Insight

Attrition from treatment, a potential threat to validity, was relatively low at 11 percent. Importantly, 64 percent of those who exited the program did so because they found employment, and statistical analysis confirmed no significant employment differences between those who stayed and those who left. This suggests that the sample remains valid for estimating program impacts going forward.

Ultimately, the report is not merely a technical formality; it lays the foundation for one of the most rigorous assessments of refugee economic integration in a developing country to date. As the international community increasingly calls for durable solutions over short-term relief, Turkey’s experiment may well offer a scalable blueprint for similar contexts worldwide. It reminds policymakers that meaningful refugee inclusion depends not just on goodwill or funding, but on evidence-based design, institutional coordination, and a commitment to learning what works in practice. With its methodological rigor and policy relevance, this study stands as a milestone in refugee policy research and a vital step toward dignified livelihoods for displaced populations.