Sharp Drop in Plastic Waste Trade Offset by OECD’s Growing Exports to Global South

The 2025 edition of the OECD’s Environment Working Paper, developed by researchers Andrew Brown and Frithjof Laubinger under the guidance of Peter Börkey and the Environment and Economy Integration Division led by Shardul Agrawala, delivers a comprehensive examination of recent developments in global plastic waste trade. Supported financially by the United States and Japan, and drawing on UN Comtrade data and Basel Convention submissions, the study adds 2023 data to the OECD’s ongoing monitoring series. It reveals a mixed but insightful narrative of declining global trade, shifting export destinations, and lingering risks in transboundary waste management.

Policy Controls Prove Effective but Challenges Remain

Since 2014, global trade in plastic waste and scrap has been reduced by nearly half. The most dramatic plunge occurred in 2018 when China introduced its stringent "National Sword" policy, effectively closing its borders to contaminated plastic waste and scrap. This policy spurred similar bans across Southeast Asia and contributed to a worldwide reckoning over the fate of exported waste. In response, multilateral action emerged with the 2021 amendments to the Basel Convention, which introduced the Prior Informed Consent (PIC) procedure for hazardous or hard-to-recycle plastic waste, later incorporated into the OECD Council Decision.

The new report highlights the impact of these controls by comparing trends in plastic waste with those of unsorted paper waste, another stream affected by China’s import ban but exempt from Basel-level regulations. While both initially declined, plastic waste trade in 2023 was 0.72 million tonnes lower than what might have occurred had it followed the paper trend, equating to about 15% of total global plastic waste trade. This deviation is strong evidence that international trade controls are successfully reducing problematic waste movements, particularly to nations ill-equipped to manage them.

OECD Countries Resume Exports to Developing Nations

Despite the encouraging long-term decline, the 2023 data signals a potentially troubling shift. After several years of shrinking trade imbalances, the gap between exports and imports among OECD countries widened again, due to a modest rise in exports and a drop in imports. This shift is especially concerning as the growth in exports was disproportionately aimed at non-OECD countries.

Countries such as Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia, which lack robust environmental safeguards and recycling infrastructure, received growing volumes of plastic waste from OECD exporters. Malaysia surpassed the Netherlands to become the world’s largest importer of plastic waste in 2023, importing over 0.6 million tonnes. Japan led the way among OECD exporters to non-OECD countries, followed by Spain, the United Kingdom, and Germany. Notably, Japan sent more than 90% of its plastic waste exports to lower-income nations, while Australia exported a similar share, albeit in smaller volumes.

Quality Gap Widens Between OECD and Non-OECD Trade

The report uses trade value per kilogram as a proxy for waste quality and recyclability. Data from 2020 to 2023 show that plastic waste traded within the OECD bloc consistently carried a higher value per weight than exports from OECD to non-OECD countries. This suggests that the latter shipments may be of lower quality, containing contaminated or mixed materials that are more difficult or costly to recycle. Such waste, when received by countries with weaker environmental regulations, risks being dumped or burned rather than properly processed.

One area of particular concern is vinyl chloride waste, which is entirely subject to the Basel Convention’s strictest controls due to its hazardous nature. Although its trade volume has steadily declined, roughly 0.03 million tonnes were still exported from OECD to non-OECD countries in 2023. Japan accounted for two-thirds of this flow, directing shipments to Malaysia, India, and other unspecified Asian destinations. This persistence in risky trade despite regulatory controls highlights loopholes or enforcement gaps that demand urgent attention.

Basel Reporting Discrepancies Undermine Oversight

A major weakness in international waste governance lies in data inconsistencies. The OECD report finds significant discrepancies between what countries report to UN Comtrade and what they submit to the Basel Convention Secretariat under the PIC regime. For instance, nearly 200,000 tonnes of vinyl chloride waste were reported in UN Comtrade, but only 84,000 tonnes were documented under Basel’s PIC records in 2023. This mismatch raises red flags about the effectiveness of monitoring systems and points to possible exploitation of bilateral agreements, such as those under Article 11 of the Basel Convention, which may bypass PIC requirements.

Such gaps cast doubt on the reliability of trade transparency and suggest that plastic waste flows may still be slipping through the cracks, untracked or misclassified as recycled materials. Given that some exporters may be rebranding waste as “recyclate” or “reusable inputs,” the real scale and nature of transboundary plastic waste movements could be significantly underrepresented.

A Fragile Balance: Progress with Emerging Red Flags

While the OECD report offers clear evidence that international controls have curbed plastic waste trade, especially to vulnerable countries, it also issues a cautionary note. Twenty-two OECD countries reduced their overall exports between 2022 and 2023, and trade in vinyl chloride waste continues its downward trend. However, the renewed growth in exports to non-OECD destinations, combined with quality disparities and data inconsistencies, suggests a fragile equilibrium.

Ongoing monitoring is essential to prevent a resurgence of environmentally damaging practices. As global efforts to end plastic pollution intensify, especially under forthcoming international frameworks, transparency, enforcement, and policy coordination will be key to ensuring that progress is not reversed under the guise of recycling. The trade in plastic waste remains a high-stakes arena in the battle for global environmental justice.