Above-Normal Rainfall Expected Across Greater Horn of Africa

A new climate outlook for the Greater Horn of Africa projects a high probability of above-average rainfall across most of the northern subregion during the crucial June-to-September rainy season. This forecast, issued during the 70th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), has significant implications for agriculture, water resources, public health, and disaster preparedness.

Issued by Climate Experts Across the Region

The GHACOF, hosted by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), is one of several regional climate forums supported by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It brings together climate scientists and experts from national meteorological and hydrological services with stakeholders in climate-sensitive sectors, including agriculture, health, water management, and disaster risk reduction.

The Forum serves a crucial role in translating seasonal climate predictions into actionable advice for policymakers and practitioners. This season’s forecast is particularly vital, as the June to September period contributes more than 50% of annual rainfall across the northern and western Greater Horn, and up to 80% in countries such as Sudan.

Key Rainfall Outlook Highlights

According to the seasonal forecast, there is a 55% chance of above-normal rainfall in:

• Central Sudan

• Eastern South Sudan

• Northern and southwestern Ethiopia

• Western Kenya

• Eastern Uganda

In addition, wetter-than-average conditions with approximately 45% probability are expected in:

• Western Uganda

• South Sudan

• Southern Sudan

• Djibouti

• Western Eritrea

Conversely, the forecast indicates a higher likelihood of below-average rainfall in:

• Coastal regions of Somalia and Kenya

• Northwestern South Sudan

• Southeastern Ethiopia

The rainfall onset is predicted to be generally normal throughout most of the region, though parts of western Ethiopia may experience a delayed start. A few areas may witness an early onset of rains, requiring flexibility in agricultural and infrastructure planning.

Temperature Forecast: Above-Normal Heat in Key Areas

Temperature projections show warmer-than-average conditions are likely over:

• Southern Ethiopia

• Somalia

• Eastern Kenya

• Northern Sudan

On the other hand, average to below-average temperatures are expected in:

• IGAD-Karamoja cluster (straddling Uganda, Kenya, South Sudan, and Ethiopia)

• Djibouti

• Eritrea

• Central Sudan

• Northeastern Ethiopia

This warming trend, coupled with wetter conditions, could compound risks for heat-related stress and outbreaks of climate-sensitive diseases such as malaria and cholera.

Opportunities and Risks

The anticipated above-normal rainfall offers prospects for enhanced agricultural productivity and replenishment of water resources. However, the outlook also raises serious concerns about possible flooding, especially in low-lying areas and urban settlements with poor drainage systems.

Authorities are urged to step up flood preparedness and strengthen public health interventions to counter potential outbreaks of waterborne diseases. Furthermore, governments and humanitarian organizations are advised to work closely with farmers to adjust planting schedules and maximize crop yields.

In areas likely to receive less rainfall, contingency planning for water scarcity and food insecurity should begin immediately to mitigate adverse impacts on vulnerable populations.

Regional Collaboration and Preparedness

ICPAC has reiterated the importance of proactive measures at both national and community levels. Enhanced early warning systems, public awareness campaigns, and inter-agency coordination will be key to minimizing the human and economic toll of climate extremes.

By utilizing data from the GHACOF and other regional climate forums, countries can better align development goals with climate resilience strategies, safeguarding livelihoods and infrastructure from the dual threats of drought and flooding.

As the rains approach, the call for climate-informed action across the Greater Horn of Africa has never been more urgent.