Climate change exacerbates transboundary water insecurity across Central Asia

Climate change is exacerbating water insecurity in Central Asia, but fragmented governance and political mistrust continue to derail adaptation, warns a new study published in the journal Water (2025, Vol. 17, Issue 1795).

The study titled “Climate-Induced Transboundary Water Insecurity in Central Asia: Institutional Challenges, Adaptation Responses, and Future Research Directions” presents a comprehensive systematic review of over two decades of research. It evaluates the compounded effects of climate change on closed lake systems and river basins in Central Asia, most notably Lakes Balkhash, Issyk-Kul, and Urmia, and highlights both institutional shortcomings and adaptation challenges.

The study finds that glacier retreat, shrinking rivers, and rising temperatures are dramatically altering regional hydrology. Surface and groundwater reserves, particularly in the Syr Darya and Amu Darya basins, are dwindling as glacier-fed supplies diminish. Frequent droughts, floods, and heat extremes are becoming the new norm, especially in the Tien Shan and Pamir mountain systems. These developments directly threaten agriculture, drinking water access, and energy supply across the five post-Soviet republics, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.

Despite these urgent climate signals, the research identifies stark spatial gaps in monitoring and modeling. Rural and high-altitude zones remain under-studied, leaving regional policymakers with incomplete data to anticipate or manage future risks. Even when hydrological models exist, few are grounded in real-time empirical data or incorporate social vulnerability, making scenario planning highly unreliable in crisis settings.

Are national adaptation strategies working?

The study reveals that while adaptation efforts are underway, they remain largely fragmented, infrastructure-heavy, and weakly evaluated. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan lead the region in institutional adaptation, having adopted formalized climate strategies and initiated irrigation upgrades and basin-level reforms. However, these efforts often lack vertical integration, national plans rarely translate into actionable policies at local or watershed levels.

Meanwhile, upstream countries like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which supply the majority of regional water through glacial melt, are primarily viewed through the lens of hydropower and geopolitical leverage. Their institutional constraints and local adaptation needs are underrepresented in both literature and policy design. Turkmenistan stands out for its closed diplomatic posture, further hampering region-wide coordination.

The dominant form of adaptation across the region remains infrastructure-focused, building reservoirs, canal refurbishments, and flood control systems. However, these responses are criticized for lacking stakeholder engagement and failing to address behavioral or policy dimensions. Concepts like Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) and participatory planning are widely discussed but rarely implemented. Furthermore, adaptation strategies are often developed without measurable indicators or long-term impact assessments, raising questions about their sustainability and effectiveness.

Another major gap is the underrepresentation of community knowledge and indigenous practices in planning. Many adaptation projects do not incorporate insights from rural populations or align with local needs, which limits social legitimacy and effectiveness. The paper calls for transdisciplinary frameworks that integrate technical, institutional, and social dimensions of adaptation, and that enable inclusive governance rather than technocratic fixes.

Why does transboundary water governance continue to fail?

One of the most critical findings of the study is the persistent failure of transboundary cooperation in Central Asia. Despite the existence of regional mechanisms like the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS), most cross-border initiatives are either symbolic or non-operational. Agreements often lack legal enforcement, data-sharing protocols, and financial mechanisms to support implementation.

The study points to deep-seated geopolitical mistrust, unilateral infrastructure projects, and the instrumentalization of water in national politics as major obstacles. The Qosh Tepa Canal project in Afghanistan, which diverts water from the Amu Darya without multilateral consent, is cited as a key example of destabilizing unilateral action. Existing bilateral and multilateral treaties fail to address timing, volume, or ecosystem protection, and many rely on Soviet-era water-sharing arrangements that are now obsolete.

Furthermore, the institutional architecture of cooperation is marked by power asymmetries and a lack of inclusivity. Afghanistan, though ecologically interlinked with Central Asian hydrology, is largely excluded from regional talks. Similarly, local actors and research institutions are seldom involved in high-level negotiations, reducing the legitimacy and contextual relevance of agreements.

The bibliometric component of the study reveals that most high-impact publications on the region originate from China, Germany, and the United States. Local researchers are underrepresented, particularly in shaping theoretical frameworks or decision-making processes. This imbalance threatens epistemic sovereignty and skews the policy discourse toward externally driven models that may not align with regional realities.

Climate change and water insecurity in Central Asia cannot be addressed through isolated national strategies or top-down frameworks. Instead, the study urges the establishment of integrated basin-wide governance systems, regionally shared climate data networks, and diplomacy platforms that transcend geopolitical boundaries. 

The future of Central Asia’s water resilience will depend on its ability to break from outdated infrastructure-centric approaches and build adaptive, institutional capacity. Without collective action, the region risks sliding into deeper hydropolitical conflict amid worsening climate conditions.