How Global Warming Could Nearly Double Extreme Poverty by Mid-Century

The working paper authored by Johanna Fajardo-Gonzalez, Minh C. Nguyen, Paul A. Corral Rodas, and produced by the World Bank’s Poverty and Equity Global Department, presents a rigorous projection of how climate change is poised to reshape global poverty. Drawing from empirical models developed by researchers at institutions like the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and informed by data from the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP), the study integrates macro-level climate–income projections from Burke, Hsiang, and Miguel (2015) with granular household-level income data from 217 countries. By simulating two futures, an optimistic SSP5 baseline and a high-emissions SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario, the authors provide a sobering narrative of the climate’s looming threat to poverty eradication efforts.

Climate Change Could Undo Decades of Poverty Reduction

One of the paper’s starkest findings is that unmitigated climate change could double the number of people living in extreme poverty by 2050. In a world without climate disruption, 52.3 million people are projected to live below the $2.15 per day poverty line by mid-century. But under the high-emissions trajectory, this number increases to 95 million. When broader poverty thresholds are used, $3.65 and $6.85 per day, the additional number of people in poverty reaches 194.2 million and 692.9 million, respectively. Sub-Saharan Africa will bear the heaviest burden, with as many as 294.1 million people in poverty by 2030 under the high-emission scenario, falling to 73.5 million by 2050. Even under the baseline scenario, the region sees 269.7 million in poverty by 2030 and 40.5 million by 2050. South Asia’s population in poverty may drop sharply under the baseline scenario, potentially reaching zero by 2050; however, under the high-emission pathway, 3.4 million people could remain in poverty. Other regions, including Latin America and the Caribbean, East Asia, and the Middle East, experience smaller but still significant impacts.

Inequality Deepens the Climate-Poverty Nexus

Beyond climate-induced income loss, the paper highlights how rising inequality acts as a force multiplier in worsening poverty. Using a Growth Incidence Curve (GIC) methodology, the study simulates how varying increases in income inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient, affect poverty projections. Even a modest 1% rise in inequality by 2050 would push an additional 8.8 million people into poverty, while a 10% increase would see that number swell to 148.8 million. The analysis shows that lower-income groups suffer disproportionately from climate shocks, especially in agriculture-dependent regions, because they lack the buffers to recover from heatwaves, droughts, or crop failures. In contrast, wealthier segments have greater access to social safety nets, financial assets, and coping mechanisms. The study finds that rising inequality not only threatens poverty alleviation but also makes societies more vulnerable to climate change, forming a dangerous feedback loop.

Methodology with Global Reach and Local Precision

The authors adopt a macro-to-micro simulation framework, using GDP per capita growth estimates from Burke, Hsiang, and Miguel to model national-level economic trajectories and then applying these changes to micro-level income distributions from the PIP. This method allows for globally comparable projections while capturing regional differences in welfare outcomes. The simulations begin with a "neutral distribution" assumption, income grows equally across the population, and are later adjusted for inequality to test more realistic scenarios. While this approach does not model short-term climate events like floods or hurricanes, and excludes adaptation or policy responses, it still offers valuable insight into the long-run risks posed by temperature increases alone. Importantly, the model assumes fixed demographic structures, meaning migration, urbanization, or labor shifts are not incorporated. While this simplifies attribution, it also means actual poverty risks could be even greater if such variables were considered.

High-Emission Pathways Signal Urgent Policy Action

The study’s reliance on the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario, a future marked by high economic growth powered by fossil fuels, emphasizes the risks of inaction. Under this path, global temperatures could rise by 4°C by 2100, with little mitigation or adaptation. The resulting impacts are particularly severe in countries already operating near critical temperature thresholds. Sub-Saharan Africa, parts of South Asia, and Latin America are among the most at risk due to their dependence on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, limited fiscal space, and weaker institutions. Although the SSP5 scenario assumes rapid growth, the authors caution that these assumptions are likely optimistic and do not reflect current development trajectories. Consequently, the projections, while conservative, may understate the full damage climate change could inflict on global poverty trends.

A Call for Inclusive Growth and Global Solidarity

The paper concludes with an urgent appeal for integrated and inclusive climate strategies. To prevent millions from falling into poverty, governments must expand social protection, invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, and reduce barriers to education and employment. The findings make clear that tackling inequality is not a secondary concern but a frontline defense against climate-driven poverty. High-income countries, which have historically contributed the most to emissions, must support developing nations through finance, technology transfer, and capacity building. Without bold and coordinated global action, the economic costs of climate change will fall disproportionately on the poorest, and reversing that trend will only become harder over time.

In essence, this study offers more than just projections. It is a call to rethink how we approach climate and development, placing equity, resilience, and human welfare at the center of policy agendas. If the world continues along its current path, climate change could not only stall but reverse hard-won gains in global poverty reduction. The future of poverty, it appears, will be written in the language of climate, and how we choose to respond today will define the fortunes of generations to come.