From Floods to Pay Gaps: How Climate Risks Affect Jobs in Madagascar’s Urban Economy

The World Bank’s Transport Global Department, in collaboration with the Eastern and Southern Africa Transport Global Practice, has produced the Policy Research Working Paper “Climate Vulnerability and Job Accessibility: Evidence from Antananarivo, Madagascar”, authored by Atsushi Iimi. The research explores the intricate links between climate risk, commuting patterns, job accessibility, and wages in one of Africa’s most rapidly growing yet climate-vulnerable capitals. It situates Madagascar’s capital in the broader context of cities worldwide where extreme weather, from Texas hurricanes to Chinese typhoons, has disrupted mobility and constrained economic activity. Antananarivo, home to 3.3 million people, faces unique urban challenges: a historic city core with narrow streets, hilly topography, and just 5.7% of its land devoted to transport infrastructure, far below global norms. Over 500 km of its roads are in flood-prone areas, and inadequate drainage makes the network highly susceptible to disruption from heavy rains and floods.

Mapping Job Access and Climate Risk

Using 2016 Living Standards Measurement Survey data, the study constructs a Job Accessibility Index by mapping job-dense areas against road networks, weighted by travel time. A Climate Vulnerability Index simulates a 10-year flood event to estimate the loss in accessible job opportunities caused by slower traffic and detours. The results reveal that half of the surveyed households could lose access to up to 25% of jobs during such events. Crucially, this is not just a matter of temporary disruption; workers anticipate these risks and modify their job search and commuting choices accordingly, even without an actual flood. The findings underscore how perceived vulnerability shapes economic decisions long before a climate shock materializes.

Commuting Patterns, Inequality, and Gender Gaps

The research shows men commute an average of 31 minutes compared to women’s 24, using a wider range of transport options. Women rely more heavily on walking, 57% of female workers go on foot, and minibuses, the city’s main public transport mode. These minibuses are informal, overcrowded, and prone to delays, especially during bad weather. Poorer residents walk more often, with 75% of the lowest-income workers traveling on foot, limiting their access to better-paying jobs in distant districts. Wealthier individuals use taxis, private cars, or minibuses to access broader job markets, resulting in higher incomes. This transport divide reinforces income inequality, locking the poorest into low-paying, nearby work.

The Economics of Commuting and Climate Impacts on Wages

Econometric analysis, controlling for endogeneity with instrumental variables, confirms two central relationships. First, commuting has a measurable positive value: wage elasticity concerning commute time ranges from 0.09 to 0.25, meaning an extra hour can raise wages by around 17%, or roughly 50,500 ariary (US$16) per month. This benefit, however, applies mainly to motorized travel; walking yields no comparable advantage, as the job market reachable on foot is too limited. Second, climate vulnerability in transport access exerts a significant negative effect on earnings, with elasticity estimates between -0.18 and -0.31. At average conditions, this equates to a 6–7% wage loss purely from the anticipated risk of flood-related commuting disruptions. In essence, climate threats shrink effective job markets even before disasters occur.

Gender Disparities and Transport Mode Choices

Women earn 20–30% less than men, even after adjusting for education, experience, and industry. High-paying sectors like ICT and professional services are male-dominated and geographically concentrated in areas requiring longer, often motorized commutes. Disaggregating wage elasticity by mode of transport shows private car and taxi users at around 0.3, well above minibus users at 0.08–0.17. While this highlights the earning potential of fast, flexible travel, it raises sustainability concerns: if incomes rise, demand for private, low-occupancy vehicles could grow, boosting greenhouse gas emissions. Strengthening the appeal and efficiency of public transport is critical to avoid this shift while ensuring equitable access to well-paid work.

Labor Market Participation, Education, and Policy Implications

Analysis of labor force participation yields surprising patterns. Having young children correlates positively with employment for both genders, unlike global trends, where childcare often limits women’s work. Women with infants under one year are less likely to work, but participation rises as children grow, with only a slight dip when children are aged seven to nine. Marital status affects employment differently: married men are more likely to work, while marriage slightly reduces women’s likelihood of employment. Another unexpected result is that education has no significant effect on whether someone is employed, regardless of gender. This may reflect high education levels in the capital or a fragmented, informal labor market where skills do not guarantee formal jobs. The Heckman selection model confirms that the main findings, positive returns to commuting, negative wage impacts from climate vulnerability, and the importance of human capital for earnings, are robust to potential sample bias.

Antananarivo’s transport system is both a barrier and an opportunity. Climate risks are already influencing where people work, how far they travel, and how much they earn. Enhancing the city’s climate resilience, through better drainage, road reinforcement, and flood-proof design, is not merely a matter of infrastructure but of economic necessity. Equally, making public transport faster, more reliable, and safer, especially for women, could expand access to better jobs without driving a surge in private car use. In a city facing rapid urbanization, high unemployment, and deep gender and income inequalities, investing in climate-resilient, inclusive mobility is a strategy for economic growth, social equity, and environmental sustainability.