South Africa’s Consumer Inflation Slows to 3.3% in August as Food, Fuel Ease

South Africa’s annual consumer inflation rate cooled slightly in August 2025, with Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) reporting a decline from 3.5% in July to 3.3%, offering relief for households grappling with high living costs. The slowdown was largely driven by lower fuel and food prices, which offset price increases in other categories of the consumer basket.

CPI Eases on Monthly and Annual Basis

Stats SA noted that the monthly change in the consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% between July and August, with four of the 13 categories in the inflation basket registering declines:

• Food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB): -0.1%

• Furnishings, household equipment & routine maintenance: -0.1%

• Transport: -0.2%

• Information & communication: -0.2%

The slowdown highlights easing cost pressures in some key household expenditure areas, though certain staple foods remain significantly more expensive compared to a year ago.

Food and Beverage Prices See Relief

The annual rate for food and NAB edged lower to 5.2% in August, compared with 5.7% in July. Within this category, notable declines were observed in cereal products, seafood, dairy, fruits, nuts, and vegetables.

• Cereal products fell from 2.1% in July to 1.5% in August. Items like hot cereals (-7.8%) and white rice (-7.2%) are now cheaper than a year ago.

• Bread and pasta products saw almost no movement: white bread (0.0%), brown bread (+0.4%), macaroni (+0.5%), and spaghetti (+0.6%).

• Some items remain expensive: samp (+14.8%) and maize meal (+8.2%) recorded steep annual increases.

This mix reflects both easing global commodity prices and local supply dynamics, with grains and imported products showing relative stability while domestically produced staples remain under pressure.

Meat Prices Still Elevated but Slowing

Meat inflation remains high, particularly for beef, but monthly increases have moderated.

• Beef mince surged 27.2% year-on-year, though the monthly increase was only 0.2%.

• Stewing beef climbed 32.3% annually, with a 0.6% monthly rise.

• Beef steak was 28.6% more expensive than last year but dropped 1.2% month-to-month.

Stats SA linked these trends to factory-gate inflation for beef carcasses, which fell -7.8% in July, filtering into slower retail price increases.

Dairy and Eggs at Lowest Rates in Over a Decade

Dairy products and eggs provided further relief, with prices recording the lowest annual rate in over 14 years.

• The price index for milk, other dairy products, and eggs fell by 1.1%, the weakest print since March 2011.

• Fresh full-cream milk dropped by 2.9% between August 2024 and August 2025.

This decline has been attributed to both stronger domestic production and easing global dairy prices.

Inflation Outlook and Household Impact

Economists note that the moderation in August suggests that inflationary pressures are easing gradually, though food and energy remain key risks going forward. While certain categories are stabilising, household budgets are still being strained by high meat prices, rising transport costs, and elevated service charges.

For consumers, the slowdown in CPI offers limited relief but signals that inflation is inching closer to the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) mid-point target of 4.5%. A stable inflation environment could provide scope for more accommodative monetary policy if economic growth continues to lag.

The August CPI figures reflect a mixed but cautiously positive picture: essential items like cereals and dairy have become more affordable, while meat remains a pressure point. With overall inflation cooling to 3.3%, South Africa is maintaining price stability, but sustained vigilance is needed to protect households from lingering food and fuel shocks.