Inequality by Birth: Regional Gaps and Limited Mobility in Colombia Revealed

The World Bank’s Poverty and Equity Global Practice, in collaboration with researchers María Eugenia Davalos and Juan Manuel Monroy, has delivered a compelling analysis of inequality in Colombia that brings geography to the forefront of the debate. The study combines advanced machine learning techniques with household survey data to argue that birthplace plays a decisive role in determining a person’s socioeconomic destiny. Based on recent data from the Colombian Quality of Life Survey (ECV), the research reveals that nearly half, 49 percent, of income inequality in Colombia can be attributed to circumstances beyond an individual’s control, such as parental education, ethnicity, sex, and especially, place of birth.

The Geography of Inequality

Colombia has long been one of Latin America’s most unequal nations. However, this study dissects inequality not merely through the lens of wealth distribution but by investigating the deep territorial divides that shape life chances. Place of birth alone accounts for more than half of the inequality attributed to birth-related circumstances when analyzed using random forest models. This stark revelation means that the geographic location where someone is born, down to the municipality level, can determine the quality of their education, access to basic services, exposure to violence, and ultimately their chances of escaping poverty. The analysis even incorporates conflict exposure into its inequality framework, showing that being born in a municipality affected by internal armed conflict significantly reduces the opportunities available to individuals throughout their lives.

Mobility Myths and Harsh Realities

While the study finds encouraging signs in absolute educational mobility, 78 percent of adults in Colombia have more schooling than their parents, relative mobility paints a much bleaker picture. Relative mobility, which measures how much a person’s educational attainment is independent of their parents’ background, is one of the lowest in the world. The gap between rich and poor, between urban and rural, and between conflict-affected and peaceful areas remains wide and persistent. For instance, Bogota exhibits a relative mobility score of 0.61, close to OECD country averages. In contrast, departments such as Nariño (0.35), La Guajira (0.36), and Vichada (0.37) fall into the lowest range of mobility, exposing a Colombia that is divided not only economically, but also territorially. The consequences are profound: children born in these marginalized regions have far fewer chances of improving their social status, regardless of their efforts.

Conflict, Gender, and Local Disparities

One of the study’s strengths lies in its nuanced breakdown of inequality by geography, gender, and historical conflict. Areas impacted by conflict have weaker mobility outcomes, reflecting the long-term scars left by violence. But gender also plays an intriguing role. In general, women tend to exceed their parents’ educational attainment more frequently than men, demonstrating higher absolute mobility. However, in certain departments, particularly remote and Indigenous-majority areas like Guainía and Vaupés, relative mobility for women remains markedly low, suggesting that patriarchal norms and structural barriers still obstruct equal opportunity. The gendered dimension of inequality, especially in rural Colombia, requires tailored interventions that address both cultural and institutional obstacles to social advancement.

Poverty Traps and the Need for Territorial Policies

The link between inequality of opportunity and poverty is unmistakable. The report finds strong correlations between low intergenerational mobility and high levels of multidimensional and monetary poverty. Departments with elevated poverty levels are often the same ones with the weakest mobility, suggesting a self-reinforcing cycle. The study also addresses common limitations in inequality research, such as the underrepresentation of top incomes in household surveys. By applying methods to adjust for missing high-income data, like those developed by Blanchet et al., the researchers estimate that inequality of opportunity in Colombia could be as high as 70 percent, rivaling that of South Africa. These findings reinforce the argument that policy responses must go beyond national averages and address localized disparities with precision. Programs targeting education, infrastructure, and public services in rural and conflict-affected municipalities are essential if Colombia is to break the vicious cycle of inherited disadvantage.

A Call to Action: Redesigning Opportunity

The report is more than an academic exercise, it is a call to rethink how Colombia addresses inequality. National progress, while important, is insufficient if vast regions remain mired in generational poverty and stagnation. The study offers a clear message: where you are born should not determine how far you can go. Yet in Colombia today, it still does. Addressing this requires a shift toward place-based policies that equalize access to opportunity from the ground up. That includes improving education quality in underserved areas, repairing the social damage caused by conflict, and ensuring that national development strategies consider the sharp regional inequalities embedded in the country’s geography. By making these challenges visible through rigorous, data-driven analysis, the World Bank study opens the door for a new conversation on equity, one that starts not with individual merit but with the territorial conditions that frame every Colombian’s future.